State of the McLean-Great Falls Real Estate Market – Quarter End 12/31/11


	State of the McLean-Great Falls Real Estate Market – *Quarter End 12/31/11© 2011 Tania Hosmer***

I recently completed my McLean-Great Falls Market Analysis for the fourth quarter of 2011 and wanted to pass it along to you.

There is a popular saying among top economists: “As goes housing, so goes the economy.”Normally, nationwide housing and housing-related services account for about 15-19% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), depending on the year. However, broad generalizations such as: “It’s a great time to buy,” don’t even begin to tell the whole story, particularly in Northern Virginia. In order to fully understand our local housing market, the statistics need to be broken down into meaningful components which can be understood and applied by the average home owner and potential buyer.This analysis provides a snapshot in time of our constantly changing local real estate market. Hopefully, it will provide you with a more detailed and accurate picture of what is happening in our market today.

McLean-Great Falls Market Analysis

(6/30/11-12/31/11)

Tables 1, 2 and 3 and Charts 1, 2 and 3 compare the number of active listings (the supply) to the number of properties sold or under contract (the demand) in the local real estate markets of McLean and Great Falls (zip codes 22101, 22102 and 22066) by price range for the period from 6/30/11 – 12/31/11.

Based on the current data, the real estate markets in our area can be characterized in one of three ways:

Buyers’ Market – More Active Listings (Supply) than Sold and Under Contract Listings (Demand)

Balanced Market – An Equal Number of Active Listings (Supply) as compared to Sold and Under Contract Listings (Demand)

Sellers’ Market – More Sold and Under Contract Listings (Demand) than Active Listings (Supply)

Table 1
Market Analysis for Zip Code 22101 (6/30/11 – 12/31/11)

		Solds +					Expireds +
		Contracts					Withdrawns
	Type of	(6/30/11-	Active				(6/30/11-
List Price Range	Market	12/31/11)	Listings	Difference			12/31/11)
$700,000-$899,999	Sellers’	62	14	48	or	77.42%	25
$900,000-$1,199,999	Sellers’	40	12	28	or	70.00%	19
$1,200,000-$1,499,999	Sellers’	24	15	9	or	37.50%	12
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	Buyers’	24	33	-9	or	-37.50%	15
$2,000,000-$2,499,999	Buyers’	5	12	-7	or	-140.00%	9
$2,500,000-$2,999,999	Balanced	5	5	0	or	0.00%	4
$3,000,000+	Strong Buyers’	4	22	-18	or	-450.00%	2

Summary of Zip Code 22101

$700,000 – $899,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes sold between 6/30/11 and 12/31/11 combined with the number of properties currently under contract is more than 4 times the number of homes currently on the market (active listings). If you factor in the property listings that expired or were withdrawn from the market, there are still twice as many sold properties plus under contract properties as currently listed properties, and this price range is still a sellers’ market.
$900,000 – $1,199,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes that sold between 6/30/11 and 12/31/11 plus the number of currently under contract properties is more than 3 times the number of homes currently listed for sale. If you factor in the property listings that were withdrawn from the market or listings that expired, this price range is still a sellers’ market.

$1,200,000 – $1,499,999 – Sellers’ Market. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market or listings that expired, this price range shifts from a sellers’ market to a balanced market.

$1,500,000 – $1,999,999 – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently on the market is greater than the number of homes sold between 6/30/11 and 12/31/11 and under contract properties combined. If you factor in the property listings that were withdrawn or expired, this price range would be a stronger buyers’ market.

$2,000,000 – $2,499,999 – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently on the market is twice the number of properties that sold between 6/3011 and 12/31/11 combined with the number of homes currently under contract.

$2,500,000 – $2,999,999 – Balanced Market. The number of homes currently listed for sale is equal to the number of homes sold between 6/30/11 and 12/31/11 plus the number of properties currently under contract. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market or expired listings, this price range shifts from a balanced market to a buyers’ market.
$3,000,000 and up – Strong Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently on the market is 5 times the number of properties sold between 6/30/11 and 12/31/11 and the number of currently under contract listings combined. The number of withdrawn listings would not significantly impact the balance.

Table 2
Market Analysis for Zip Code 22102 (6/30/11 – 12/31/11)

		Solds +					Expireds +
		Contracts					Withdrawns
	Type of	(6/30/11-	Active				(6/30/11-
List Price Range	Market	12/31/11)	Listings	Difference			12/31/11)

$700,000-$899,999	Sellers’	21	3	18	or	85.71%	4
$900,000-$1,199,999	Sellers’	17	6	11	or	64.71%	12
$1,200,000-$1,499,999	Sellers’	11	9	2	or	18.18%	9
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	Sellers’	15	10	5	or	33.33%	11
$2,000,000-$2,499,999	Sellers’	10	5	5	or	50.00%	4
$2,500,000-$2,999,999	Strong Buyers’	3	12	-9	or	-300.00%	8
$3,000,000+	Buyers’	7	17	-10	or	-142.86%	9

Summary of Zip Code 22102

$700,000 – $899,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of sold properties combined with the number of under contract listings is 7 times the number of homes currently on the market (active listings). If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market or expired listings, there are still 3 times the number of active listings as sold properties plus under contract properties.

$900,000 – $1,199,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of sold properties combined with the number of under contract listings is almost 3 times the number of homes currently on the market. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, this price range is balanced.

$1,200,000 – $1,499,999 – Sellers’ Market. This price range is very close to a balanced market (without factoring in the withdrawn and expired listings). If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, this price range shifts from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market.

$1,500,000 – $1,999,999 – Sellers’ Market. If you factor in the number of properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings allowed to expire, this price range becomes a buyers’ market.

$2,000,000 – $2,499,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of properties sold between 6/30/11 and 12/31/11 plus the number of properties currently under contract is twice the number of homes currently for sale. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, this price range shifts from a sellers’ market to a balanced market.
$2,500,000 – $2,999,999 – Strong Buyers’ Market. The number of homes listed for sale is 4 times the number of homes sold between 6/30/11 and 12/31/11 combined with the number of properties currently under contract.
$3,000,000 and up – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently listed for sale is more than twice the number of homes sold between 6/30/11 and 12/31/11 plus the number of homes currently under contract.

Table 3
Market Analysis for Zip Code 22066 (6/30/11 – 12/31/11)

		Solds +					Expireds +
		Contracts					Withdrawns
	Type of	(6/30/11-	Active				(6/30/11-
List Price Range	Market	12/31/11)	Listings	Difference			12/31/11)
$700,000-$899,999	Sellers’	31	15	16	or	51.61%	18
$900,000-$1,199,999	Sellers’	32	12	20	or	62.50%	26
$1,200,000-$1,499,999	Balanced	20	21	-1	or	-5.00%	27
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	Buyers’	17	20	-3	or	-17.65%	18
$2,000,000-$2,499,999	Balanced	8	8	0	or	0.00%	6
$2,500,000-$2,999,999	Buyers’	4	9	-5	or	-125.00%	2
$3,000,000+	Strong Buyers’	3	13	-10	or	-333.33%	9

Summary of Zip Code 22066

$700,000 – $1,199,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes that sold between 6/30/11 and 12/31/11 plus the number of homes currently under contract is twice the number of homes currently listed for sale. However, there are as many properties that have been withdrawn and listings allowed to expire as homes currently listed for sale, so if you factor those in, this price range would be balanced.
$1,200,000 – $1,499,999 – Balanced Market. The number of homes currently listed for sale is equal to the number of homes sold between 6/30/11 and 12/31/11 plus the number of properties currently under contract. If you factor in the homes that were withdrawn from the market and the homes that were allowed to expire, this price range would shift from a balanced market to a sellers’ market.
$1,500,000 – $1,999,999 – Buyers’ Market. However, it is close to a balanced market. If you factor in the homes that were withdrawn from the market and the homes that were allowed to expire, this price range would be a stronger buyers’ market.
$2,000,000 – $2,499,999 – Balanced Market. If you factor in the homes that were withdrawn from the market and the homes that were allowed to expire, this price range would shift from a balanced market to a buyers’ market.
$2,500,000 – $2,999,999 – Buyers’ Market. The number homes currently listed for sale is twice the number of properties sold between 6/30/11 and 12/31/11 plus the number of homes currently under contract.
$3,000,000 and up – Strong Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently on the market is 4 times the number of homes sold between 6/30/11 and 12/31/11 plus the number of homes currently under contract.

Note: All of the numbers for the withdrawn and expired listings were cross referenced against currently active listings, sold listings and under contract listings. If they were listed in another category, they were excluded from the numbers and thus not accounted for more than once.

Links to files containing full-screen viewable and printable versions of all of the above tables and charts are available on my web site:

http://McLeanRealEstateNews.com

If you have any questions about this analysis, the McLean-Great Falls housing market, or know anyone who’d like to receive my market updates, please don’t hesitate to contact me. In addition, if you’ve given any thought to moving or hear that any family, friends or co-workers plan to move, please let me know.

I look forward to hearing from you.

Kindest Regards,

Tania

Tania Hosmer
Keller Williams Realty
6820 Elm Street, Suite 100
McLean, VA 22101
cell 703-403-8225
email taniahosmer

“It’s Not Your Father’s Real Estate Market Anymore.” ®

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